Case 1 · Wharton 2017 casebook, Penn and Teller
Should Caesars re-sign Penn & Teller?
A consulting club case workshop for first-year MBA students: a facilitator framed what to watch, a second-year student ran a live demonstration case while narrating his own thinking out loud, a classmate played the interviewer, and the room then split into small-group breakout practice.
Prompt
Our client is Caesars, one of the largest gaming and resort companies in the world. Penn and Teller have headlined at the Rio Hotel since 2001 and are the longest-running headlining show in Las Vegas history. Caesars owns the Rio, where the duo performs in the 1,500-seat Penn and Teller Theater, and is wondering whether the act has become stale. The duo's annual contract is about to expire. Before Caesars meets with them, it has asked for a recommendation on whether or not to re-sign the act for another year.
Clarify
What the caser asked, and what came back. The later questions arrived mid-case, as the data did.
- What exactly is Caesars solving for? What matters most as they weigh whether to re-sign the act?
- Caesars cares solely about the company's total bottom-line profitability.
- Is there a time frame to keep in mind for profitability, or is it the foreseeable future?
- Think about the length of the contract, which, like all Vegas contracts, is a one-year period.
- You said the act was stale. Can you say more about why Caesars believes that? (He flagged that odd words in a prompt are worth picking on.)
- The show has plateaued. There has been no change in profitability in the last five years.
- Mid-case, on revenue: beyond the number of seats, how often are they filled, what are the prices, and how many shows per year?
- Occupancy 100% for A, 80% for B, 50% for C. Prices $120, $75, $55. Six shows a week for 40 weeks a year, with one day off per week and three months off for TV appearances and book deals.
- Mid-case, on costs: I think I missed one of the six cost buckets. Which one?
- Props, such as doves and playing cards, at $200 per show.
- Housekeeping is $1,000 a week. Is that for the entire year or only the 40 weeks the show is performing?
- Only the 40 weeks the show is live. Treat every other weekly or monthly expense as running 12 months a year.
- After the interviewer flagged a cost line: the $2 million for Penn and Teller, is that per person or in aggregate?
- Per person, so $4 million in total.
- For the alternative act: is it still the same 240 shows per year, and the same contract length?
- No changes to the number of shows, and the contract is the same one-year term as Penn and Teller's.
Hypothesis
Initial: because profitability has plateaued for five years, there is probably an opportunity to find something better, so Caesars should look at switching to a new, more popular show; customer preferences may be shifting. Revised after the cost math showed about $18 million of profit at nearly 80% margin: he said plainly that his hypothesis had been to switch, but the show looked pretty good and he was interested in re-signing while still testing alternatives. After the alternative act showed a four-year payback for about $600,000 a year of extra profit, he said he was leaning toward staying with Penn and Teller, and the recommendation followed that lean.
Framework
Three areas, read across and then down.
Paper lab · worked example
Build the case, one thought at a time
Follow the connections. Rehearse what you would write and say, then move to the next decision.
One-year profit · question → evidence → decision
01 / 06 · Decision
Start with the client’s decision
Write on the pageRenew the act for one year? Maximize Caesars’ total bottom-line profit.
Say it aloud
“Before I structure this, I want to confirm the objective and the one-year time horizon.”
What to watch
Underline the objective. Put the time horizon beside it, not in a separate bucket.
02 / 06 · Structure
Give each branch a question
Write on the pageCurrent economics · Alternatives · Risks
Say it aloud
“I’d establish what the current show earns, compare the alternatives, and check what could change the decision.”
What to watch
Draw three branches. Write questions under each heading; do not fill the page with a memorized list.
03 / 06 · Baseline
Put the equation under the first branch
Write on the page$22.8m revenue − $4.8m costs = $18m annual profit
Say it aloud
“The current show produces $18m on the supplied figures. That is the baseline an alternative must beat.”
What to watch
Keep units next to each number. Wider hotel and gaming effects remain open questions.
04 / 06 · Compare
Use the same time horizon
Write on the page$21.6m − $3m − $2.4m upfront = $16.2m in year one
Say it aloud
“The alternative improves recurring profit, but switching costs make it $1.8m worse in the first year.”
What to watch
Box one-time costs separately. A four-year payback does not answer a one-year decision.
05 / 06 · Brainstorm
Split ideas before listing them
Write on the pageImprove the show → pricing, seat mix, demand tests Build around it → hotel, gaming, concessions
Say it aloud
“I’d group ideas into improving the show itself and increasing its contribution to the wider property.”
What to watch
Add two short idea branches. Circle one promising test; explain impact, feasibility, and risk.
06 / 06 · Recommend
Return to the decision
Write on the pageRenew for one year on the supplied economics. The initial hypothesis weakens: the current show earns $18m, while switching yields $16.2m after upfront costs in the first year.
Say it aloud
“I recommend renewing for one year, then testing the demand and property effects that could change the answer.”
What to watch
Draw an arrow back to the objective. State the answer, the evidence, and one next step.
Compare with the complete driver map
See the reasoning unfold
Read across the questions, then follow the evidence down to the decision. This is one worked approach, not the only valid framework.
Client decisionRenew the act for one year? Maximize Caesars’ total bottom-line profit.
Practice scratchpad only. Kept while this page is open; not saved or sent.
Starting hypothesis · to testA new, more popular show might improve profit. Test this against the current show and the cost of changing.
Start here → Current economics: establish the profit the alternative must beat before deciding whether the act is stale.
Bucket 1
What does the current show earn?
- Revenue: seats × occupancy × ticket price × shows
- Costs: performers, crew, housekeeping, props, utilities and SG&A
- Wider property: hotel, gaming and concessions contribution
Test / evidence
Tickets: $95,000 per show × 240 shows = $22.8m per year. Annual costs: $4.8m, including $2m for each performer.
So what?
The supplied ticket and cost figures imply $18m annual profit. Stagnant growth alone does not prove the show should be replaced; wider-property effects still need checking.
Bucket 2
Would an alternative do better?
- Compare another act on the same one-year horizon
- Separate ongoing costs from one-time switching costs
- Consider other uses for the theater
Test / evidence
New act: $21.6m revenue − $3m ongoing cost = $18.6m, before $2.4m upfront switching cost. First-year profit after switching: $16.2m.
So what?
Switching is $1.8m worse in year one on these figures. The $0.6m recurring improvement needs four years to recover the upfront cost, beyond the one-year decision window.
Bucket 3
What could change the decision?
- Customer preferences and brand fit
- Performer availability and retirement risk
- Uncertainty in the alternative’s sales forecast
Test / evidence
The current show has been stable for five years. Category A sells out; category C fills only half its seats. Demand for the new act is a forecast.
So what?
Test demand and seat-mix improvements rather than assume a newer show will win. Brand effects and future availability remain questions, not measured benefits.
Revised hypothesis → recommendation
Renew for one year on the supplied economics. The initial hypothesis weakens: the current show earns $18m, while switching yields $16.2m after upfront costs in the first year.
Next step: Validate changing customer preferences, test pricing and seat mix, and check material hotel or gaming effects before finalizing the contract.
Full framework notes
Financials of Penn and Teller
He keeps revenue and cost in one bucket; splitting them is a matter of preference.
- Revenue: tickets, meaning number of seats, capacity filled, and price
- Revenue: other sources such as concessions
- Revenue: connections to other parts of the property, such as hotel and gambling
- Costs: the contract with Penn and Teller
- Costs: variable costs per show, such as stagehands, utilities, cleaning
- Costs: fixed costs, such as marketing and SG&A
Alternatives to Penn and Teller
Kept shorter, since much of it mirrors the first bucket.
- Other shows and their profitability
- Switching costs
- Repurposing the space: hotel, gaming, arena
Other considerations
A catch-all for risks and benefits.
- Brand, for both Caesars and Penn and Teller
- Will the duo retire soon; do we need to think about a new act beyond the one-year window
- Customer preferences and how they are evolving (added last, before he read the framework out)
Numbers
Every exhibit in this case was given verbally. Each card is one data drop: what it showed, the arithmetic as the caser talked it through, and the takeaway.
Alternative: $18.6m annual operating profit − $2.4m upfront switch = $16.2m in year one.
Decision: the alternative earns $0.6m more annually, but takes four years to recover the switch. Compare on the client’s one-year horizon.
Revenue inputs, given verbally
1,500 seats in three categories: 300 category A (best seats), 800 category B, 400 category C (balcony and back). Occupancy averages 100% for A, 80% for B, 50% for C. Prices are $120, $75, and $55. Six shows a week, 40 weeks a year.
Walk through the calculation
He first called out that A sells out while C is only half full, a possible opportunity for later. Then per show: A, 300 seats times $120 is 30,000 plus 6,000, so $36,000. B, 800 times 80% is 640 seats; 640 times 100 is 64,000 and 75% of that is $48,000. C, 400 times 50% is 200 seats; 200 times 50 is 10,000 plus 200 times 5 is 1,000, so $11,000. Total $95,000 per show. Shows per year: 6 times 40 is 240. Annual revenue: 95,000 times 240, multiplied out longhand, is $22.8 million.
Takeaway. A strong-looking number, but meaningless without the cost side. He asked to move to costs to judge whether $22.8 million is good or improvable. Method notes: talk the math through out loud, use shortcuts where they exist, and lay the data out as a table.
Cost inputs, six buckets, given verbally
Penn and Teller each earn $2 million a year. Crew (stagehands, showgirls, ushers) $2,000 per show. Housekeeping $1,000 per week, only for the 40 live weeks. Props $200 per show. Utilities, mostly lights, $52,000 per year. SG&A including marketing and box office staff $15,000 per month.
Walk through the calculation
Crew: 240 times $2,000 is $480,000. Housekeeping: 40 times $1,000 is $40,000. Utilities $52,000. SG&A: 15 times 12 is $180,000. Props: a tenth of crew, so $48,000. The non-contract items sum to $800,000. He deliberately booked the duo at $2 million total, reaching $2.8 million, and said that seemed crazy low against $22.8 million. The interviewer said one cost line was off; he rechecked, asked whether $2 million was per person, learned it was, and corrected to $4.8 million total.
Takeaway. Profit of about $18 million on $22.8 million, nearly an 80% margin. He said his hypothesis to switch now looked shaky and the show looked great. On the mistake: do not apologize, thank them for the clarification, and keep moving; on the job there is a spreadsheet in front of you.
The alternative act, given verbally after the brainstorm
Caesars could replace the show with one featuring the recent winner of America's Got Talent. Same one-year contract. The new show costs $3 million a year all in. Switching requires reconfiguring the theater plus a one-time marketing blitz, $2.4 million, incurred before the first show. The new show would sell $90,000 of tickets per show; gaming and concessions revenue would be insignificant. Still 240 shows.
Walk through the calculation
He worked in deltas rather than redoing everything. Revenue: $95,000 to $90,000 is $5,000 less per show; 5,000 times 200 is 1 million and 5,000 times 40 is 200,000, so $1.2 million less, taking revenue from $22.8 million to $21.6 million. Costs: $3 million against $4.8 million saves $1.8 million a year. Net: about $600,000 more profit per year. Payback: $2.4 million divided by $600,000 is four years. His rule of thumb is that roughly three years is fine and four is getting long. (He misspoke once, calling the switching cost annual; the interviewer had defined it as one-time.)
Takeaway. Caesars would gain about $600,000 a year but wait four years to recover the switching cost. He was not compelled for a show already this profitable and stable, and said he was leaning toward staying with Penn and Teller. Whenever a case mentions switching or upfront costs, go straight to break-even.
Brainstorm
When the interviewer asked how to make the current show more profitable, he asked for 30 to 60 seconds, grouped ideas into two buckets (the show itself, and around the show), and admitted he was bad at brainstorms when he started.
How could we improve the current show’s profit?
Use the evidence: premium seats sell out; the lowest-price section is half full.
Improve the show
- Change the seat mix: move seats from category C, which only half fills, into category A, which sells out at the highest price. He tied this back to the observation he had flagged before doing the revenue math.
- Test price elasticity: can prices be raised in any segment or for any shows.
- Add shows: the act only performs 40 weeks a year, so ask whether the duo would do more.
Test next → Test willingness to pay and demand before changing seats, prices or show frequency.
Build around the show
- Around the show: bring in new concessions.
- Around the show: add an opening act beforehand to bring more people in.
- Around the show: bundle tickets with the hotel.
Test next → Test whether concessions, an opening act or hotel bundles add profit after their extra costs.
Choose the idea with the strongest profit potential
Compare incremental revenue, extra cost, feasibility and risk. State what evidence would change your mind.
Continue to the recommendation →Recommend
Stay with Penn and Teller. Reasons: the show is highly profitable today, about $18 million in profit on $22.8 million of revenue, and it has been very stable. The new act is only a hair more profitable and would take four years to pay back its $2.4 million switching cost, a long and risky change built on assumptions about how it would perform. Risk one: customer preferences may be evolving; next step, a customer survey on entertainment preferences. Risk two: Caesars cares about profitability and the current show is technically a little less profitable than the alternative; next step, pursue the brainstorm ideas such as improving the seat mix. He closed by thanking the interviewer.